top of page

Physician Shortage in 2025: What Premeds and Med Students Need to Know

  • Writer: Nate Swanson
    Nate Swanson
  • May 19
  • 36 min read

physician shortage in 2025, what premeds and med students need to know

Introduction


The United States is grappling with a significant physician shortage in 2025, a challenge that will profoundly shape the experiences of today’s premeds, medical students, and early-career doctors. Recent data paint a sobering picture: the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) projects a shortfall of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036 under current trends aamc.org. This gap is especially acute in primary care, where demand for services far outstrips supply. Patients nationwide are already feeling the effects – many struggle to find a new primary care doctor or specialist, facing long wait times and limited access to care aamc.org. In this article, we’ll delve deeply into the state of the physician workforce in 2025, exploring why the shortage exists, how it impacts medical training and healthcare delivery, and what changes are on the horizon. Aspiring and current physicians need an honest, evidence-based understanding of these issues to navigate their careers and help shape solutions.


The Current State of the Physician Shortage


By 2025, physician shortages are no longer a distant projection – they are a present reality. Multiple analyses confirm a growing gap between physician supply and the healthcare needs of the U.S. population. The AAMC’s latest workforce report (March 2024) warns that if current trends persist, the nation could be down tens of thousands of doctors within the next decade aamc.org. In fact, one analysis estimated that by the end of 2024 the U.S. was already facing a deficit of up to 64,000 physicians, a figure exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic’s fallout on the workforce mckinsey.com. The shortfall spans both primary care and specialty fields, although the primary care gap is particularly pressing (more on that below).


Why is this happening? Demographic forces are a major driver. The U.S. population is growing and aging rapidly – by 2036, the overall population will be 8% larger, and the number of Americans over age 65 will surge by over 30% aamc.org. Older patients generally need more medical care, especially from specialists, so demand is rising fast. At the same time, a large segment of the physician workforce is at or near retirement age. As of 2023, 20% of active physicians are 65 or older, and another 22% are between 55–64 aamc.org. Over the next ten years, an unprecedented wave of retirements is expected to significantly shrink the supply of doctors aamc.org. This one-two punch – growing demand and diminishing supply – forms the core of the shortage.


Compounding these trends, the COVID-19 pandemic delivered a shock to the healthcare system that worsened workforce strains. The pandemic intensified physician burnout and stress, contributing to an “unprecedented departure of physicians from the clinical workforce” in recent years mckinsey.com. Surveys indicate that many doctors have cut back hours or left practice early. Alarmingly, two in five physicians say they plan to leave their current practice within five years, largely due to burnout and dissatisfaction ama-assn.org. Such attrition, if not addressed, will further deplete the physician ranks even before retirement age. In short, the physician shortage in 2025 is the result of more patients needing care, fewer doctors available to provide it, and a healthcare environment that is straining physicians to their limits.


Primary Care at the Center of the Shortage


Primary care physicians – the front-line providers in family medicine, general internal medicine, pediatrics, and related fields – are at the epicenter of the workforce shortfall. The AAMC projects a primary care deficit of between 20,200 and 40,400 physicians by 2036 ruralhealthinfo.org. Federal analyses are similarly bleak: the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) estimates the U.S. is already short by about 43,000 primary care doctors, and that this gap could swell to 68,000 by 2036 aamcresearchinstitute.org. These figures underline a critical reality for future doctors: the nation urgently needs more primary care providers.


Several factors make the primary care shortage especially challenging. One is career choice patterns among new physicians. Despite the high societal need, relatively few medical graduates are choosing primary care careers. In 2025’s residency Match, for example, family medicine programs filled only 85% of their available training positions – over 800 family practice slots went unfilled nrmp.org. This occurred even as more competitive specialties (like dermatology or orthopedic surgery) had far more applicants than positions. Internal medicine residency positions do fill almost completely, but it’s important to note that a majority of internal medicine residents ultimately pursue subspecialties (such as cardiology or gastroenterology) rather than practicing as general internists in primary care. The net effect is that not enough young physicians are entering primary care to replace retiring family doctors and internists, creating a pipeline that isn’t keeping up with patient needs.


Financial and systemic disincentives contribute to this trend. Primary care physicians have among the lowest average salaries of physician specialties, while carrying similar education debt loads as their peers – a combination that pushes some graduates toward higher-paying specialties. Primary care can also be intense and administratively burdensome: managing large patient panels, dealing with insurance hurdles, and coordinating care often lead to burnout. It’s telling that more than half of primary care doctors report feeling burned out, and one-third plan to stop seeing patients within a few years commonwealthfund.org. This feedback loop – fewer entrants to primary care, plus high burnout-driven exit rates – threatens to widen the gap further.


Geography magnifies the primary care crisis. Rural and other underserved communities face the most severe shortages of all, especially for primary care. As of late 2024, about two-thirds of designated Primary Care Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSAs) are in rural areas ruralhealthinfo.org. In many rural counties, there are simply not enough (or sometimes any) family physicians or general internists available. Patients in these areas may have to drive hours for basic care, or go without regular primary care altogether. The health consequences – from unmanaged chronic diseases to higher mortality – are well documented when primary care is lacking ruralhealthinfo.org. In short, the primary care shortage is both a numerical shortfall and a distribution problem, and addressing it will be a central challenge for the next generation of physicians.


Uneven Distribution: Rural and Specialty Disparities


health professional shortage areas primary care
HRSA.gov, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, April 2025

The physician shortage isn’t uniform – it’s as much about where doctors practice, and in what specialties, as it is about sheer numbers. Nowhere is this clearer than in the rural-versus-urban divide. Approximately 19% of Americans live in rural areas, but less than 8% of physicians practice there ruralhealthinfo.org. The result is a striking maldistribution: rural communities average about 13 physicians per 10,000 people, compared to over 30 per 10,000 in urban areas ruralhealth.us. For specialists, the gaps are even wider – many rural counties have no local neurologist, cardiologist, or psychiatrist. The map above highlights vast swaths of the country (particularly in parts of the Midwest, Great Plains, and Mountain West) that are designated as primary care shortage areas, underscoring how access to care is fundamentally harder outside metropolitan areas. Patients in these regions often must travel long distances for routine appointments, rely on under-resourced rural clinics, or delay care until minor issues become serious. This rural shortfall contributes to worse health outcomes, reinforcing healthcare disparities between rural and urban populations.


Beyond geography, specialty imbalances also characterize the physician workforce. While primary care and psychiatry are officially recognized by HRSA as shortage specialties, many other fields are quietly facing deficits resources.nejmcareercenter.org. Surgical specialties are a prime example. Workforce studies warn of looming shortfalls in areas like general surgery, orthopedics, urology, and obstetrics–gynecology, which could undermine access to critical procedures, especially in rural and smaller communities resources.nejmcareercenter.org. For instance, a few years ago the AAMC projected that by 2025, the nation could be lacking at least 25,000 surgeons (and perhaps over 30,000) if nothing changes resources.nejmcareercenter.org. Already, there are entire regions where recruiting a general surgeon or OB-GYN is extremely difficult, leading some hospitals to scale back services (e.g., maternity units closing due to lack of obstetricians). Psychiatry is another specialty in chronic shortage – the U.S. needs thousands more psychiatrists just to meet current mental health needs resources.nejmcareercenter.org, and many counties (particularly rural ones) have no psychiatric physician at all.


What’s important to recognize is that almost every specialty is feeling workforce strain. As one analysis noted, while primary care shortages get significant attention, “shortages across most specialties and subspecialties are even more striking” in their own right aamcresearchinstitute.org. An aging population means greater need for specialists like cardiologists (with more heart disease in older patients) and oncologists (with more cancers), at the same time many senior specialists are retiring. For upcoming physicians, this means demand is high in many fields – but especially if you’re willing to practice in underserved locations or high-need specialties. It also means health systems are urgently experimenting with ways to stretch the existing specialist workforce (for example, through telemedicine or by training advanced practice providers in specialty clinics). The maldistribution of doctors – across geography and specialty – lies at the heart of America’s healthcare access problems, and it will be an area of focus as policymakers and educators seek to alleviate the shortage.


Causes of the Physician Shortage: Training Bottlenecks, Burnout, and More


What are the root causes behind the physician shortage? It turns out to be a multi-faceted problem with both supply-side and demand-side factors. Understanding these causes in depth is key for anyone entering the medical field, as they shed light on why simple solutions remain elusive. Below, we break down several major contributors to the shortage:


  • Graduate Medical Education (GME) Bottleneck: A critical choke point is the cap on residency training positions in the United States. Medicare, the largest funder of GME, effectively froze the number of funded residency slots in 1997. For over two decades, the number of new doctors trained each year barely budged, even as the population grew. Medical schools responded to warnings of physician shortages by expanding class sizes – in fact, U.S. MD and DO schools increased enrollment by nearly 40% since 2002 aamc.org – but residency slots did not keep pace. Only recently has Congress acted to loosen the cap: in 2020 it authorized 1,000 new Medicare-funded residency positions (spread over five years), and in 2022 added another 200 aha.org. These were the first meaningful increases in GME funding in 25 years, yet they are a drop in the bucket relative to the need. Legislation pending in 2025, such as the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act, proposes adding 14,000 more Medicare-supported residency slots over seven years aamc.org. If passed, that would be a significant boost. But as of now, the limited number of residency positions remains a fundamental barrier to training and deploying more physicians. Each year, hundreds if not thousands of well-qualified U.S. medical graduates (and many international graduates) go unmatched in the residency Match due to the limited positions nrmp.org. This is not only a personal tragedy for those individuals, but a systemic inefficiency – at a time of shortage, we have eager MDs and DOs who cannot complete training because of funding constraints on GME. Solving the physician shortfall will require addressing this bottleneck so that increasing medical school enrollment actually translates into more practicing doctors aamc.orgaamc.org.

  • Physician Burnout and Early Exits: On the supply side, physician burnout has become a crisis within the profession, and it’s directly contributing to the shortage by driving doctors out of the workforce. Burnout – characterized by emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and reduced sense of accomplishment – was high even before 2020, but the pandemic poured fuel on the fire. Frontline physicians have endured years of overwhelming workloads, administrative hassles, staff shortages, and moral distress, leaving many drained. Surveys by the AMA found that 40% of physicians intend to leave clinical practice or reduce hours within the next 2–3 years, citing burnout and stress ama-assn.org. Similarly, a Medical Group Management Association poll in late 2024 found 27% of medical groups had a physician retire early or leave that year specifically due to burnout mgma.com. Every time a doctor cuts back or quits, their patients lose access, and the system loses capacity. The departure of mid-career physicians (not just retirees) is a relatively new and worrisome trend. It underscores that retention of the existing workforce is just as important as training new doctors. Many healthcare leaders now argue that addressing burnout – by improving work conditions, reducing bureaucracy, and supporting physician wellness – is an urgent workforce strategy, needed to “reduce the churn” and avoid turning one physician shortage into an even worse one ama-assn.org. In short, without a mentally and physically healthy workforce, doctors will continue to leave practice before retirement age, worsening shortfalls.

  • Aging Workforce and Retirement Wave: As noted earlier, a huge cohort of physicians is nearing traditional retirement age. Over one in five doctors is 65+ aamc.org, and many others in their late 50s and early 60s are contemplating winding down. Some veteran physicians delayed retirement to help during COVID-19 surges, but many are now accelerating their plans. When these older physicians retire – potentially tens of thousands of them within a decade – it will substantially decrease the supply of experienced doctors aamc.org. Importantly, this wave includes not just clinicians but also many medical school faculty and teaching physicians, which could impact training capacity. While older doctors can sometimes be convinced to stay on a bit longer (through part-time roles or incentives), eventually biology wins out. The profession needs a strong pipeline of new doctors to replace those retiring, yet as we’ve discussed, that pipeline has constraints. An added wrinkle is that younger generations of physicians are showing more interest in work-life balance and may not work the same long hours that older cohorts did – meaning more FTE physicians might be needed to care for the same number of patients as compared to prior eras. In summary, a large-scale retirement wave is poised to hit at the same time demand for care is booming, which is a recipe for shortages unless mitigated.

  • Population Growth and Greater Healthcare Utilization: On the demand side, the U.S. population both larger and older than it used to be. By 2034, for the first time in U.S. history, the number of adults over 65 will outnumber children under 18 aamc.org. Older patients typically have multiple chronic conditions and require more frequent medical visits, specialist consults, surgeries, and so on. This demographic reality means that even if the physician workforce were holding steady, demand would be climbing. Various projections suggest total physician demand will grow 10–17% by 2035, depending on assumptions resources.nejmcareercenter.org. When demand grows faster than supply, shortages emerge. We’re already seeing effects: for example, waiting times for appointments have lengthened in many areas. A 2022 survey found average wait times for new primary care appointments exceeded 3 weeks (26 days) nationwide milbank.orghealthjournalism.org, and were much longer in some specialties and cities. Longer waits and difficulty scheduling are classic signs of a workforce that isn’t meeting demand. Another way to look at it: if historically each physician could reasonably care for, say, 2,000 patients, but now each primary care doctor has 2,500+ patients in their panel, it results in overworked doctors and frustrated patients. The aging population also drives up demand for specialists (e.g. cardiologists for heart disease, oncologists for cancer), which contributes to those specialty shortages discussed earlier.

  • Maldistribution and Specialty Choice: As described in the prior section, where and how physicians choose to practice exacerbates perceived shortages. Urban centers may have plenty of dermatologists or orthopedic surgeons, but rural communities may have zero – which in practice is a shortage for that community even if the national numbers of that specialty look adequate. Likewise, if most internal medicine graduates subspecialize, there is a “functional” shortage of general internists. In primary care, many areas depend heavily on international medical graduates (IMGs) to staff clinics – in fact, IMGs make up a large portion of rural primary care physicians – so immigration policies and visa issues can influence local shortages. The maldistribution of the physician workforce (favoring metropolitan areas and certain lucrative specialties) is rooted in many factors: economic opportunities, lifestyle preferences, availability of training programs, and state-level recruitment incentives or lack thereof. This means that the shortage isn’t monolithic; it manifests differently across the country. From a policy standpoint, solutions must address not just the raw numbers of physicians, but also who goes into which fields and where they practice.


In sum, the physician shortage has no single cause. It is a confluence of training capacity limits, workforce attrition, demographic shifts, and distribution imbalances. Each of these causes suggests a different set of solutions – from funding more residency spots, to reducing burnout, to incentivizing rural practice and primary care careers. For those in medical training now, being aware of these root causes is more than academic; it will shape the environment in which you train and eventually practice. The good news is that understanding the causes also highlights where interventions can make a difference, as we’ll explore in later sections.


Impact on Patients and the Healthcare System


A doctor shortage isn’t just a statistic – it has real-world consequences for patients and the healthcare system. Already, many Americans are experiencing the effects in their daily lives. Perhaps you have an elderly relative who had to wait six months for a specialist appointment, or you’ve heard of rural towns fundraising to recruit a single primary care doctor. These anecdotes reflect broader systemic impacts that are measurable and concerning:


  • Longer Wait Times and Delayed Care: One of the most direct effects is that patients have to wait longer to see a physician. In many parts of the country, finding a new primary care provider can be difficult; clinics often have no open slots for months. Specialist appointments are also backlogged – for instance, seeing a neurologist or dermatologist might take several months in areas with limited supply. National surveys confirm that wait times have been creeping upward. As noted, the average wait for a new patient primary care visit is on the order of 3–4 weeks healthjournalism.org, and considerably longer in some regions. For certain specialties, an “acceptable” wait used to be two weeks, but now a month or more is common healthjournalism.org statnews.com. These delays aren’t just inconvenient; they can lead to worse outcomes. When patients must wait, a manageable condition can deteriorate into an emergency. For example, a delayed appointment might mean a diabetic patient goes without proper blood sugar management or a person with new chest pain postpones evaluation – raising risks of complications. In some cases, patients simply forgo care altogether because access is too difficult, leading to more advanced disease by the time they are seen. Health systems are acutely aware that physician shortages pose a patient safety risk due to these delays in care.

  • Overloaded Emergency Departments and Urgent Care: As access to office-based care tightens, more patients turn to emergency rooms or urgent care clinics for issues that ideally should be managed by primary care. Rural areas in particular see higher rates of emergency department use for non-urgent needs, largely because alternatives are lacking ruralhealthinfo.org. A recent study found that rural adults were more likely than urban adults to use the ER for health needs, including for issues that weren’t true emergencies ruralhealthinfo.org. This dynamic strains ERs (which are already overcrowded and understaffed in many cases) and drives up healthcare costs, since ER care is far more expensive than an office visit. It also reflects a kind of healthcare “shrinking” – when primary care is unavailable, every problem becomes urgent or emergent. Hospitals have responded by expanding urgent care centers, telehealth triage services, and other stopgaps, but these are Band-Aids if long-term physician workforce issues aren’t addressed. The ideal is to have robust primary care access so that fewer patients end up in the hospital for lack of earlier intervention.

  • Reduced Time per Patient and Potential Quality Erosion: Another system effect is that physicians, especially in primary care, are being asked to do more with less. Larger patient panels and physician shortfalls mean doctors often have to see more patients per day, or shorten each visit, to meet demand. It’s not uncommon now for primary care visits to be squeezed into 10-15 minute slots. This reduces the quality of the interaction – there’s less time for thorough evaluation, patient education, and preventive care. Physicians may triage issues and address only the top one or two complaints per visit. From the patient perspective, feeling rushed can erode trust and satisfaction. From the physician perspective, this assembly-line pace feeds burnout and job dissatisfaction. Studies have shown that when primary care physician supply is higher (e.g. more PCPs per capita), patients have better health outcomes and even lower mortality ruralhealthinfo.org. Conversely, when doctors are overextended, things get missed. Preventive screenings might not happen, medication management can slip, and follow-ups fall through the cracks. Thus, the physician shortage can indirectly undermine quality of care and health outcomes, even for those who do have a doctor, simply because that doctor is responsible for too many patients or stretched too thin.

  • Innovations and Workarounds (with mixed results): The healthcare system is not passively enduring the shortage – many workarounds and innovations have emerged. We’ll discuss these more in the next section, but it’s worth noting their impact here. For example, practices are increasingly leveraging advanced practice providers (APPs) like nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician assistants (PAs) to fill gaps. In some primary care settings, an NP might function almost interchangeably with a physician for routine care. This team approach can maintain access in the face of physician scarcity, but it also sparks debates about quality and scope (more on that later). Another workaround has been telehealth expansion – connecting patients with distant physicians via video or phone. Telehealth exploded during the pandemic and has remained popular for improving access to care (especially for mental health and routine follow-ups) where local physicians are in short supply usafacts.org. Large health systems are also centralizing or triaging specialty care: for instance, maybe there’s only one endocrinologist in a region, so they focus on the toughest cases while primary care manages the basics of diabetes with specialist input via e-consults. These adaptations help mitigate the impact on patients, but they are not equal substitutes for having enough physicians on the ground. Triage mode can maintain a level of service, but often at the cost of thoroughness or personal touch. From a patient’s perspective, seeing a different provider (like an NP) or using telemedicine might be perfectly fine for many needs; for others, it may not fully replace an in-person physician visit.

  • Healthcare Workforce Strain and Morale: Finally, it’s worth mentioning the intangible but important effect on the healthcare workforce’s morale. Operating in an environment of chronic shortages means doctors and staff are constantly stretched, often covering vacancies or doing extra call duty. This can become a vicious cycle: shortages lead to overwork and stress, which leads to burnout, which then leads to more people leaving the profession, worsening the shortage. For healthcare systems, retaining nurses, techs, and support staff also becomes harder when physician shortages disrupt workflows or cause backlogs. All of this can indirectly affect patients through staff turnover and less cohesive care teams.


In summary, the physician shortage’s effects ripple across the healthcare system: patients wait longer and may receive care from stretched-thin providers or alternate sources, emergency services bear a greater load, and overall system costs rise due to inefficiencies. For future physicians, understanding these impacts is crucial – it underscores why workforce planning and policy are not dry topics but ones that determine how you will practice and the challenges your patients may face.


Medical School Admissions in an Era of Shortage


One might assume that a doctor shortage would make it easier to get into medical school – after all, shouldn’t we be urgently training more physicians? The reality, however, is that medical school admissions remain highly competitiveeven as the nation clamors for more doctors. In fact, the physician shortage narrative has been a driving force behind the expansion of U.S. medical education in the past 15 years, yet demand to become a physician has also skyrocketed. Here’s the nuanced picture of how the shortage is affecting (and not always affecting) medical school admissions:


Growing Enrollment, But Still Tough Odds: U.S. medical schools have expanded their class sizes and new schools have opened in response to projected shortages. The total number of students enrolled in MD-granting medical schools is now at an all-time high – just shy of 100,000 students in 2024-25, up nearly 1.8% from the year before aamc.org. First-year MD matriculants reached 23,048 in 2024, also a record high aamc.org. (Osteopathic medical schools have similarly expanded, contributing thousands more new physicians each year.) This growth is the fruition of a long-planned 30% expansion goal that the AAMC set back in the mid-2000s. However, applicant demand has risen even faster. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a well-publicized surge in med school applications (the so-called “Fauci effect”), with applications peaking above 60,000 in 2021 aamc.org. Applications have since settled back toward pre-pandemic levels, with about 52,000 applicants vying for those ~23k MD seats in 2024-25 aamc.org. That’s still more than a 2:1 ratio of applicants to seats, which translates to an acceptance rate of roughly 44%. In other words, more people want to become doctors than ever, but U.S. med schools can only accept less than half of them. From an admissions standpoint, the shortage has prompted schools to expand class sizes modestly, yet competition remains fierce due to the high interest in medicine.


New Schools and Diversity of Pathways: To alleviate the shortage, new medical schools have been popping up, including in states that lacked one. Over the past decade, numerous MD and DO programs have opened or are in development. For example, 2023 saw the opening of the Thomas F. Frist Jr. College of Medicine in Tennessee aamc.org, and more are on the horizon. These new schools often focus on producing primary care physicians or serving specific regions (especially underserved ones). There’s also been growth in dual-degree and accelerated programs that aim to channel graduates into needed fields (such as three-year MD programs that fast-track students into primary care residencies). Despite these innovations, aspiring doctors should know that standards remain high – a larger number of seats hasn’t equated to a lowering of the bar. If anything, the applicant pool has become more accomplished and diverse. The competition simply shifts to these new schools as well, though some may have mission-based preferences (like preferring local applicants or those committed to rural health).


Admissions Emphasis on Shortage Areas: One subtle impact of the physician shortage on admissions is the increased emphasis on recruiting students likely to serve in high-need areas or specialties. Many medical schools (especially public state institutions) are now explicitly looking for applicants who express interest in primary care, rural medicine, or underserved communities. They recognize that selecting and nurturing such students increases the chances they will go into those shortage fields. For example, some schools have rural medicine tracks or require rotations in community health centers. Admissions committees might favor an applicant who grew up in a rural town and wants to return to practice there, or a student with a background in primary care research or service. There are also programs like the National Health Service Corps (NHSC) scholarship, which pays tuition for students who commit to working in underserved areas after training. Premeds targeting these opportunities can strengthen their profile by demonstrating a genuine commitment to addressing healthcare disparities. While top grades and MCATs are still required, the definition of the “ideal medical student” is broadening to include passion for primary care and service, not just academic metrics. This is a direct response to workforce needs.


More Seats, More Grads… But a Residency Bottleneck: It’s important for premeds and med students to realize that increasing medical school seats alone cannot solve the shortage – the residency bottleneck we discussed still looms. We are nearing a point where U.S. medical school graduates (MD and DO) outnumber available PGY-1 residency positions, something that was not true a decade ago. In 2023 and 2024, the number of graduating med students continued to climb. By 2025, in the Main Residency Match, there were 47,000+ applicants (including U.S. and foreign graduates) for about 43,000 first-year residency slots nrmp.org. While most U.S.-educated MDs and DOs do secure a residency, a small percentage do not match in their first try – and that percentage could grow if schools keep enlarging classes without a proportional residency increase. This reality means medical schools are somewhat cautious about expansion: no one wants to train a student for four years and then have them unable to complete their pathway. From a student’s perspective, it means that simply getting into med school, while a huge accomplishment, is not the end of competition – there’s another bottleneck at the residency stage if the system doesn’t change. This dynamic is why you’ll often hear groups like the AAMC and AMA lobbying in tandem for more residency funding whenever a new med school is opened.


In conclusion, the physician shortage has driven growth and innovation in medical education, but it has not made the road to becoming a doctor easy. Premedical students should prepare for a challenging admissions process and be mindful that the system is looking for those who will help solve the shortage (through primary care, rural practice, etc.). Once in medical school, students may find more support and encouragement to enter shortage fields – whether through mentorship, financial incentives, or tailored training pathways. The hope is that by shaping the pipeline from the admissions stage onward, the physician workforce in a decade will better match the country’s needs.


Residency Match Challenges and Specialty Competitiveness


For medical students, the transition from medical school to residency – the Match – is a pivotal moment, and the physician shortage is casting a long shadow over this process as well. While overall there are more residency positions each year, competition remains intense in certain specialties, and misalignments persist between the types of doctors we’re training and those most needed. Here’s how the shortage is impacting the residency landscape:


Record-High Residency Positions… and Applicants: The good news is that the number of residency training positions in the National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) is at an all-time high. In the 2025 Match, programs offered 43,237 PGY-1 positions, which was a record and about 877 more positions than the prior year nrmp.org. Growth has been especially notable in primary care specialties – for instance, internal medicine, family medicine, and pediatrics together offered over 20,000 positions in 2025 nrmp.org. However, applicant numbers have also reached new heights. Over 47,000 applicants (across MD, DO, and international graduates) vied for those spots nrmp.org, meaning not everyone matched. The overall fill rate was about 94.3%, so roughly 2,500 PGY-1 positions went unfilled in the initial Match nrmp.org (many of which were later filled via the Supplemental Offer and Acceptance Program). Most unfilled slots tend to be in primary care or less competitive programs. Meanwhile, around 9,000 applicants (nearly 20%) did not match initially nrmp.org – this group includes a significant number of international medical graduates and some U.S. graduates who were unmatched. The core issue remains: we still have slightly more applicants than residency positions, a situation worsened by the shortage-driven push to graduate more medical students without an equal expansion of GME slots. Until residency positions increase substantially, this bottleneck will persist.


Primary Care vs. Specialty Fills: An interesting paradox in recent Matches is how primary care residencies struggle to fill all their positions with U.S. graduates, even though primary care physicians are in shortest supply. In 2025, family medicine only filled 85.0% of its positions in the Match, marking a decrease from the prior year nrmp.org. That left 805 family medicine spots unfilled initially (most of which were later taken by IMGs in the supplemental rounds). Pediatrics had a slight dip and then rebounded to a 95.3% fill rate nrmp.org. Internal medicine, which is the largest specialty by far, actually filled 96.8% of positions, which is quite strong nrmp.org – but as mentioned, a large proportion of those internal medicine residents will go on to subspecialize rather than enter general primary care. The fact that anyprimary care spots are unfilled suggests a lack of interest among some U.S. grads, likely due to perceived lower pay or prestige and the grueling nature of primary care practice. On the flip side, most other specialties fill nearly 100% of positions. In 2025, fields like Obstetrics/Gynecology, General Surgery, and Psychiatry continued to fill almost all their slots, and competitive specialties (Dermatology, Plastic Surgery, etc.) remained extremely difficult to match into (they typically fill 100% with domestic grads, many of whom are top of their class). One notably volatile field has been Emergency Medicine – EM saw a shocking low fill rate of 81.8% in 2023 amid pandemic stresses, but rebounded to 97.9% fill by 2025 nrmp.org after programs cut positions and more students showed interest again. The takeaway is that the distribution of residents by specialty is not yet aligning with workforce needs. We are still graduating many subspecialists (which we do need) but not enough primary care and certain high-need specialties like geriatrics or addiction psychiatry. Residency positions in those fields can go unfilled while more popular fields have a surplus of applicants – a clear signal of mismatch.


Competitiveness and Applicant Behavior: The shortage backdrop has influenced how students approach the Match as well. A sense of overall competition means many students apply to more programs than ever, sometimes submitting dozens of applications even in primary care fields, just to be safe. The sheer volume of applications per applicant has become a problem in itself (the so-called “application fever”), leading to reforms like supplemental application questions and preference signaling to help programs filter candidates. The NRMP and specialty associations have tried to guide students with data on match rates by board scores, etc. Currently, the match rate for U.S. MD seniors hovers around 93–94% and for U.S. DO seniors around 91–93% nrmp.org. This means about 1 in 16 U.S. grads doesn’t match to a residency initially – often they reapply or scramble into a spot later, but it’s a stressful situation that wasn’t as common 20 years ago. For international medical graduates (IMGs), the match is much tougher: only 58% of non-U.S. citizen IMGs matched in 2025 nrmp.org. Many IMGs fill the gaps in primary care and rural areas, so improving their pathways (such as more J-1 visa waivers or allowing more IMGs into residency) is one strategy to alleviate shortages in underserved areas ama-assn.org. The AMA president recently noted that IMGs make up about a quarter of the U.S. physician workforce and called for policies to better integrate these doctors, given our needs ama-assn.org.


From a medical student’s perspective, the interplay of shortage and Match means you should be thoughtful about your specialty choice and how you rank programs. If you have a passion for primary care, know that you’re highly employableand in demand, though you might not feel that in the Match if certain programs don’t fill (that’s more a reflection of others’ preferences). If you’re aiming for a competitive specialty, the overall shortage might not directly help you (there’s no shortage of, say, radiologists in the same way as PCPs, so those fields remain competitive). However, in the big picture even specialists are needed – many specialties have regional shortages or will in the near future. We may reach a point where previously competitive fields become less so simply because of retirements and demand (for example, general surgery or psychiatry might become more accessible as programs expand to address shortages).


In summary, the residency Match is feeling the strain of the physician shortage in complex ways: positions are increasing but not uniformly across fields, primary care residencies still struggle to attract U.S. grads, and many new doctors are needed in less glamorous but crucial specialties. For current med students, it’s wise to stay informed about workforce trends as you make career decisions. You might discover rewarding opportunities in specialties or locations that are in dire need of physicians, where your impact (and perhaps your chances of matching and later finding a job) could be greatest. The system is slowly adjusting – through funding and policy – to address shortages via the GME system, but for now, the onus is also on students and training programs to align passion with patient need wherever possible.


Job Prospects for New Physicians: Opportunities and Cautions


If there’s one silver lining to the physician shortage for those entering the profession, it’s this: job prospects for new doctors are exceptionally strong. In many ways, newly trained physicians are entering a seller’s market, where their skills are in high demand and they often have considerable leverage in choosing where and how to practice. However, this comes with some nuances and caveats worth understanding:


Abundant Job Offers and Recruiting Frenzy: A telling statistic comes from a 2023 survey of final-year medical residents: 78% of residents reported receiving 51 or more job solicitations during training, and 56% had over 100 job offers or solicitations before finishing residency amnhealthcare.com amnhealthcare.com. Think about that – more than half of new doctors are essentially spammed with recruiting emails, calls, and even dinners, sometimes from dozens of hospitals and practices. In some fields, it’s even more extreme. For example, it’s estimated that for every graduating vascular surgeon, there are 2-3 open job positions waiting resources.nejmcareercenter.org. Orthopedic surgeons, cardiologists, and other specialists report similar demand. The result is that the challenge for most graduating residents today is not finding a practice, but choosing the right opportunity from a variety of offers amnhealthcare.com. New physicians can often compare incentives like signing bonuses, loan repayment packages, salary guarantees, relocation allowances, and more. Many areas designate certain specialties as “critical need” and will offer very attractive terms. Recruiters might start contacting residents as early as PGY-2 or PGY-3 (or fellowship for subspecialists) to lock them in. This abundance of opportunities is directly fueled by the shortage – hospitals and clinics know that if they don’t snag a candidate, some other organization will. As one physician workforce expert put it, these doctors are like “blue chip athletes” coming out of training, with many teams vying for their commitment resources.nejmcareercenter.org.


High Demand in Underserved Areas and Primary Care: While all physicians are needed, the most acute demand (and often the best incentives) are for those willing to work in underserved settings – be it rural areas, inner-city communities, or in primary care roles. For instance, a rural hospital may desperately need a family physician or general surgeon and might offer not just a high salary, but also things like a housing allowance, reduced clinic buy-in costs, or even paying for a spouse’s job placement. Federal and state programs also sweeten the pot: a common path is the National Health Service Corps or state loan repayment programs that will forgive a sizable chunk of medical school debt if a physician works in a Health Professional Shortage Area for a certain number of years. Many new doctors with heavy debt loads find these programs appealing – you serve a community in need and emerge debt-free or with much lower debt. Primary care physicians, in particular, have seen their starting salaries rise faster than inflation in recent years, a trend driven by intense competition among healthcare systems to recruit a finite number of family docs or internists physiciansweekly.com. In some cases, large retail or urgent care companies (or telehealth companies) are also offering attractive packages to primary care physicians, adding to demand outside the traditional hospital/clinic employers. All this means that if you’re finishing training in a high-need specialty or open to a high-need location, your job choices are plentiful and you can likely negotiate for terms that suit your personal and professional goals.


Caveats – Workload and Expectations: It’s important to note that while job opportunities are abundant, the working conditions may be challenging – after all, these areas are high-need for a reason. A newly minted physician who signs on to be the sole internist in a small town could be on call frequently and see a very high volume of patients. The support infrastructure might be thinner (fewer specialists to refer to, less coverage when you’re away). In other words, the jobs most readily available often come with the expectation of “doing a lot with a little.” That can be a recipe for burnout if not managed, which is why some recruitment efforts emphasize building support (like hiring a team of NPs to assist the new doctor, or ensuring a locum tenens can cover vacations). Another caveat is scope of practice and team dynamics: in settings with shortages, new physicians may find themselves supervising more advanced practice providers or working in non-traditional care models (like telehealth or urgent care centers) rather than a cushy subspecialty clinic. For example, an internal medicine graduate might take a job as a hospitalist where they supervise a night team of PAs, or a psychiatrist might oversee a telepsychiatry service across multiple states. These setups can be exciting and innovative, but they require adaptability. The bottom line is job security is virtually guaranteed for new physicians, but the nature of those jobs will vary widely – some will be dream jobs, others might be very tough slogs in underserved regions.


Geographic Differences: The shortage (and thus job market) is highly regional. Generally, the more rural or remote the area, the harder it is to recruit physicians – and thus the more aggressive the recruitment package. Some states have a severe maldistribution; for instance, states in the South and Midwest have fewer physicians per capita and often struggle to retain local medical graduates, who might head to big cities on the coasts. This creates a scenario where, paradoxically, a new doctor might have dozens of jobs open in certain states or specialties, but if they only want to live in a very saturated city (say, San Francisco or Boston) in a competitive specialty, they could still face stiff competition. Urban centers with major academic hospitals tend to have plenty of specialists; the jobs there might not be as plentiful or high-paying as those in less saturated markets. That said, even in cities, primary care and psychiatry positions are abundant. For residents, it’s wise to keep an open mind geographically – you might find that a place you hadn’t initially considered offers you a chance to practice the way you want, with a lifestyle you enjoy, precisely because they really need you.


Potential for Changing Dynamics: Looking forward, could the physician job market ever become too saturated? It’s unlikely in the near term, given the projections of continued shortages. However, some experts caution about long-term shifts: for example, if physician supply eventually catches up or if technologies/other professionals significantly reduce demand for doctors in certain areas (say, AI diagnostic tools or a huge influx of nurse practitioners in primary care), the job landscape might evolve. For now, though, every sign points to persistently high demand. Even residency programs are incorporating more practice management and contract negotiation training into curriculums, recognizing that residents need to be savvy in evaluating job offers in this competitive environment.

In summary, for early-career physicians the shortage translates into robust job opportunities, higher starting salaries, and the ability to have greater choice in how you shape your career. It’s a great time to be entering medicine from an employment standpoint. The caution is to choose wisely – a job that looks amazing on paper (huge salary, etc.) might be in a location or setting that could test your limits. Conversely, a job in a high-need area might be incredibly rewarding and come with benefits like loan forgiveness but could require a bit of grit. The shortage ensures you won’t lack for options; your task will be to find the role that best fits your definition of a fulfilling medical career, while also serving the communities that need you most.


Shaping the Future: Solutions and Evolving Care Models


The physician shortage is a complex challenge, but it’s spurring a wave of policy changes, innovations, and new care models aimed at mitigating its impact. For current and future healthcare professionals, being aware of these evolving trends is crucial – you will likely practice in an environment very different from that of your predecessors, with new team dynamics and tools at your disposal. Let’s explore some of the major developments shaping the future of medicine in response to the shortage:


1. Policy Responses – Expanding the Pipeline: On the policy front, there’s a strong push to expand the physician pipeline through funding and legislation. We discussed the efforts to increase Medicare-funded residency slots – this is an ongoing battle in Congress. The bipartisan Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act (with bills in both House and Senate) is one key piece, proposing to add 14,000 new residency positions gradually aamc.org. While as of 2025 it hasn’t passed, it has broad support from organizations like the AAMC and AHA, and if enacted it would be the largest residency expansion in decades aha.orgaha.org. Beyond funding positions, there are calls for lifting the 1997 residency cap entirely, giving CMS flexibility to support more training slots wherever need is proven. Another policy angle is incentivizing distribution: recent GME slots that were added in 2020 are targeted – a portion must go to rural hospitals, or hospitals in states with new medical schools, etc. aha.org. This targeting aims to produce doctors in the places that need them most. Additionally, federal and state governments are bolstering programs like the National Health Service Corps (NHSC) and other scholarship/loan repayment programs to funnel more graduates into underserved areas. Even immigration policy plays a role – there are bipartisan discussions about easing visa requirements for international doctors and expanding the Conrad 30 waiver program (which allows each state to sponsor 30 foreign medical graduates per year to work in underserved areas) ama-assn.org. The AMA has voiced strong support for making it easier for qualified IMGs to stay in the U.S. to practice, noting that one-quarter of U.S. physicians are international graduates and they are indispensable in filling rural and urban shortage areas ama-assn.org. In short, at the highest levels, there is recognition that we need more doctors, and various policy levers – funding, immigration, service incentives – are being pulled to make that happen.


2. Embracing Team-Based Care: Even with maximal training of new doctors, we likely won’t meet 100% of the demand unless we redesign how care is delivered. Enter team-based care. The idea is to leverage a multidisciplinary team – physicians, nurse practitioners, physician assistants, nurses, pharmacists, social workers, care coordinators – to share the care load and operate at the top of each team member’s license. In a world of physician shortage, physician-led teams can amplify one doctor’s impact. For example, in a primary care clinic, a doctor might handle the complex diagnostic dilemmas and management plans, while NPs or PAs see patients with routine follow-ups or minor illnesses, and nurses/medical assistants handle care coordination and patient education. This way, a physician can supervise the care of a much larger patient panel than they could alone. Team-based care is moving from “nice to have” to “essential” in this context ama-assn.org. The AMA has emphasized that with looming shortages, a physician-led team model is crucial to maintain quality while expanding capacity ama-assn.org. Many health systems are reorganizing practices into Patient-Centered Medical Homes (PCMH) or similar models that formalize team roles and workflows. Early-career doctors should be prepared to work collaboratively and supervise or delegate more than perhaps was typical in the past. This doesn’t mean doing less – it means focusing your expertise where it’s most needed and trusting team members with other aspects of care. Studies have shown team-based approaches can improve outcomes and patient satisfaction, but it requires training in teamwork and leadership for physicians (skills that med schools and residencies are increasingly teaching).


3. Expanding Scope of Practice for Non-Physician Providers: A somewhat controversial but undeniably impactful trend is the expansion of scope of practice for non-physician clinicians, especially nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician assistants (PAs), collectively sometimes called advanced practice providers (APPs). Given the primary care shortage, many states have moved to allow NPs/PAs to practice more independently. As of 2025, about half of U.S. states grant full practice authority to nurse practitioners (meaning they can evaluate, diagnose, and treat patients – including prescribing medications – without physician supervision) clinicaladvisor.com incrediblehealth.com. Other states have reduced or collaborative practice requirements. This trend has been accelerating; for instance, California and New York recently passed laws expanding NP autonomy after certain conditions are met. The rationale is straightforward: there are over 325,000 licensed NPs in the U.S. (a number growing each year), and studies show they can capably manage much of primary care and preventive services. HRSA projects a surplus of nearly 75,000 NPs in primary care by 2036 aamcresearchinstitute.org, even as physician shortages continue, indicating that utilizing NPs and PAs could substantially alleviate the primary care gap aamcresearchinstitute.org. Indeed, AAMC researchers note that a large NP/PA workforce “may effectively alleviate” the physician shortfall if integrated properly aamcresearchinstitute.org. For patients, this might mean your “doctor’s appointment” could actually be with a nurse practitioner – and in many cases, that works out fine. However, these scope expansions have sparked debates: physician organizations sometimes raise concerns about quality and training differences, whereas NP organizations argue it’s a necessary step to provide care where physicians are lacking. As a future physician, you will likely work alongside many NPs/PAs, and in some settings you may be supervising them or collaborating as peers if they practice independently. The trend suggests a move toward a more inclusive healthcare workforce, where the roles are optimized to meet demand. In areas with acute doctor shortages, APP-run clinics (with periodic physician consultation) are becoming commonplace. The evidence so far indicates that with proper collaboration and referral systems, this model can maintain quality while improving access – though it’s an ongoing area of study.


4. Telehealth and Digital Health Expansion: The pandemic vastly accelerated the adoption of telehealth, and its continued use is a key part of the strategy to mitigate access issues. Telemedicine allows a physician in one location to care for patients in remote or underserved areas without physically being there. In 2020, regulatory barriers to telehealth came crashing down – Medicare and private insurers started reimbursing virtual visits, and licensing rules were relaxed. The result was a 10-fold (or greater) increase in telehealth utilization virtually overnight usafacts.org. Even after the pandemic’s peak, telehealth use remains far above pre-pandemic levels usafacts.org. In 2023, about 25% of patients used telehealth in some form, compared to only 5% pre-2020 ama-assn.org. Furthermore, 80% of physicians plan to continue using telehealth routinely in their practice usafacts.org. This is a crucial tool for shortage areas: a single psychiatrist in a city can, via telemedicine, run clinics for patients in multiple rural towns; a dermatology consult for a suspicious rash can be done via secure video or even asynchronous photo review. Telehealth doesn’t create more doctors, but it distributes expertise more efficiently. It also opens possibilities like virtual group visits, remote monitoring (patients using devices at home with data sent to their doctor), and easier follow-ups – all of which can extend care to more patients with the physicians we have. There are challenges to work out: interstate licensing (the Interstate Medical Licensure Compact helps but isn’t universal), ensuring quality of care remotely, and addressing the digital divide (many rural areas lack broadband, and not all patients are comfortable with telehealth technology). Nevertheless, telehealth is here to stay, and likely will be an integral part of how you practice. You might spend part of your week in person and part doing virtual visits, or you may consult on telehealth cases in addition to your regular practice. Policy-wise, Medicare has extended telehealth reimbursement through at least 2024, and many expect it to become permanent given its popularity and usage data.


5. New Care Delivery Models and Practice Innovations: Beyond teams and tech, we’re also seeing shifts like value-based care models that encourage keeping patient populations healthy (which can reduce the strain on physician visits) and retail clinics or urgent care proliferation to handle low-acuity issues conveniently. Some practices are adopting direct primary care or concierge models – while controversial in the context of a shortage (since concierge doctors see fewer patients by design), some argue these models can actually improve physician satisfaction and keep doctors in practice longer (preventing burnout) albeit at the cost of volume. Automated technologies and AI are also emerging: for example, AI-driven decision support might offload some cognitive burden from doctors, and automated kiosks or apps might handle routine screenings or questions, ideally freeing up physician time for more complex tasks. No discussion of future models is complete without mentioning physician well-being initiatives – recognizing that to fix the shortage, we must keep our physicians healthy and practicing. Programs to reduce administrative burden (like reforms to prior authorization, better EHR interfaces, team documentation support) are in motion to give doctors more time for patients and less time on paperwork ama-assn.org. The AMA’s “Recovery Plan for America’s Physicians” explicitly targets burnout drivers to retain physicians in the workforce ama-assn.org. In essence, many of these innovations aim to use physician time more efficiently, whether by sharing work with others, leveraging technology, or changing payment models to prioritize preventive care over reactive care. Each of these can help stretch the existing physician workforce to cover more people without individual docs simply working to the breaking point.


Overall, the future of medicine in the context of a physician shortage will likely be defined by greater collaboration, smart use of technology, and systemic changes to how care is organized and reimbursed. For new physicians, this is a message of both optimism and adaptation. Optimism because these changes can make practicing medicine more sustainable and can improve patient access; adaptation because it won’t be the lone-doctor-with-paper-chart model of yesteryear, but rather a team sport in a high-tech arena. The tone among healthcare leaders is one of urgency but also creativity – with concerted effort, the worst projections of shortages can be mitigated by training more physicians and by reimagining care delivery. As you prepare to enter this evolving landscape, staying flexible and open to new ways of practicing will be key. You might supervise a cadre of remote PAs, or use AI to help formulate treatment plans, or coordinate a multidisciplinary team in a community health center. These emerging models are not just buzzwords; they’re rapidly becoming the new reality in which tomorrow’s doctors will lead.


Conclusion


The physician shortage of 2025 is a defining challenge for the American healthcare system – and for those who aspire to care for patients within it. We’ve seen that this shortage is not a simple supply-and-demand hiccup, but a complex, multifactorial problem rooted in an aging population, an aging physician workforce, constrained training capacity, burnout, and maldistribution of providers. Primary care sits at the crux of the issue, with profound implications for access to basic health services, especially in rural and underserved areas. The effects ripple outward: patients face longer waits and potential gaps in care, while healthcare teams scramble to do more with less.


Yet, within this crisis lie opportunities and catalysts for positive change. Medical schools and policymakers are responding – expanding class sizes, lobbying for more residency funding, and innovating educational pathways to produce the types of doctors society most needs. Young physicians entering the field will find unprecedented demand for their skills, granting them leverage to shape fulfilling careers and serve communities of their choice. The flip side of that demand is a responsibility: a responsibility to lead the transformation of healthcare delivery that is underway. This means embracing team-based practice, working alongside nurse practitioners, PAs, and other professionals in collaborative roles. It means leveraging technology like telehealth to reach patients you otherwise couldn’t and being open to continual learning as new tools (and perhaps AI) become part of medical practice. It also means using your voice – as a future physician – to advocate for systemic improvements: smarter healthcare funding, efforts to reduce burnout, and policies that ensure we train and retain enough physicians in the specialties and areas where they’re needed most.


For premeds and medical students reading this, the road ahead is challenging but also full of promise. You are entering medicine at a time of great change. The shortage will undoubtedly affect your training experience – you might find yourself in a residency with more autonomy earlier on because attendings are stretched, or you might see your clinic schedule double-booked with patients due to provider vacancies. You’ll likely also have your pick of jobs when the time comes, and you can truly make a difference by choosing to serve in a capacity that alleviates this national problem. Whether you become a family physician in a small town, a psychiatrist in a community clinic, or a specialist who supports primary care colleagues via teleconsults, your work will be integral to closing the gaps we’ve discussed.


Most importantly, keep in mind that behind every statistic and projection are real human stories – the diabetic patient who finally gets a local doctor after months without one, the burned-out physician who finds joy again through a better practice model, the medical student from a rural area who returns home to practice and transforms healthcare for their community. The physician shortage is a call to action for the medical community. By understanding it in all its nuance, and by committing to evidence-based solutions and compassionate care, tomorrow’s doctors (you among them) will be the ones to ensure that every patient can get the timely, effective care they need. The journey won’t be easy, but it will be worthwhile – for you, for your patients, and for the healthcare system as a whole.


Sources:


Join our mailing list

© 2035 by White Coat Hub. Powered and secured by Wix

bottom of page